Data: Eligible Immigrant Voters Play a Key Role in Elections in Hundreds of Swing Districts

April 16, Washington DC — A new analysis from the American Immigration Council finds that millions of immigrant voters who are U.S. citizens are a central part of the electorate across 284 congressional districts where elections will take place this year.

The analysis on voting data reflects eligible and registered voters only. Under federal law, only U.S. citizens can vote in federal elections.

Drawing on the latest available data from the 2024 American Community Survey, the analysis shows that immigrants account for nearly one in five residents across the districts studied. They play a significant role in the workforce, tax base, and local economies that shape voters’ priorities.

Key findings include: 

• U.S. citizens who are immigrants are poised to play a key role in close elections. There are an estimated 16 million registered immigrant voters (that is, naturalized U.S. citizens eligible and registered to vote) across the districts analyzed. In 44 percent of these districts (126 of 284), the number of eligible immigrant voters exceeds the margin of victory in the 2024 elections.

• For example, in Florida’s 25th congressional district there are an estimated 135,500 immigrant voters. The district flipped from GOP to Democratic control in 2022 and the Democrats won again in 2024 by a narrow margin of victory of 30,700 votes.

• In New Jersey’s 9th district, Democrats won by just over 12,600 votes in 2024. There are nearly 165,000 immigrants there who are U.S. citizens age 18 and above and thus eligible to vote.

• Language and outreach matter. On average, 83.1 percent of immigrants speak a language other than English at home, highlighting the importance of outreach that reflects the diversity of communities in these districts.

• Immigrants are a major part of local communities. On average, immigrants make up nearly 20 percent of residents across the 284 districts analyzed, and in some districts, they represent more than half of the population.

“Immigrant voters who are U.S. citizens are a meaningful part of the electorate in many communities, especially in close races,” said Nan Wu, director of research at the American Immigration Council. “Like other voters, they care about jobs, housing, and the economy, and they are deeply embedded in the communities they help sustain.”

The analysis also underscores that immigrants’ influence extends beyond elections. Across the districts studied, immigrants help drive economic growth, support key industries, and shape the issues that dominate elections, from inflation and housing to workforce shortages.

Taken together, the findings show that immigrants are not a niche population, but a core part of the communities, economies, and electorate that define many congressional districts.